MONTE CARLO SIMULATION IN ESTIMATING CLEAN WATER SUPPLIES

Abstract

Estimates are important tools in effective and efficient planning for predicting
future events. Identical estimates of the future values of a variable for planning
or decision making of a situation to estimate future values. Monte Carlo
simulation is a simulation model that involves a series of random and sampling
with a probability distribution that can be known and determined, then this
simulation can be used. In this study, data is taken from the amount of water
usage in PDAM Tirtanadi H.M branch. Yamin, North Sumatra from January
2018 to June 2019. Then, the data is processed and analyzed using Monte
Carlo Simulation to determine the forecast results in the years that follow. The
result is an estimated amount of water usage in 2019 and 2020 at PDAM
Tirtanadi H.M branch. Yamin, North Sumatra is 8,604,556 and 8,592,873.
The estimated amount of water use is down from the amount of water use in
2018 which reached 8,685,356. The amo